何度も同じものを読まされるのに飽きているかもしれませんが,New York Timesに掲載されたShiller教授の説明であれば,一読の価値があるかもしれません。
Actually, I do not completely oppose the efficient-markets theory. I have been calling it a half-truth. If the theory said nothing more than that it is unlikely that the average amateur investor can get rich quickly by trading in the markets based on publicly available information, the theory would be spot on. … But the theory is commonly thought, at least by enthusiasts, to imply much more. Notably, it has been argued that regular movements in the markets reflect a wisdom that transcends the best understanding of even the top professionals, and that it is hopeless for an ordinary mortal, even with a lifetime of work and preparation, to question pricing. Market prices are esteemed as if they were oracles.
himaginary氏の日記にて,抄訳をご覧いただけます。また,himaginary氏の日記において,Shiller教授の心理学者との出会いが紹介されています。こちらもどうぞ。
via himaginaryの日記, N.Y. Times